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While the extremely far-right wing of the Republican party are busy throwing their annual fits over an immigration bill, this conservative Republican is going to talk about what might be the exit strategy in Iraq. Well, not a complete and total exit by our troops, but I’ll explain.
A couple of stories have caught my eye this week, but it wasn’t until the latest story that it began to make some sense to me.
We’ll be coming back to that story as this post progresses.
First, let’s look at this story.
WASHINGTON — President Bush would like to see the U.S. military provide long-term stability in Iraq as it has in South Korea, where thousands of American troops have been based for more than half a century, the White House said Wednesday.
White House spokesman Tony Snow told reporters Bush believes U.S. forces eventually will end their combat role in Iraq but will continue to be needed in the country to deter threats and to help handle potential crises, as they have done in South Korea.
The United States has kept forces in South Korea since war erupted with North Korea in 1950 and currently has about 30,000 troops there.
“At some point you want to get to a situation in which the Iraqis have the capability to go ahead and handle the fundamental matters of security … so that if you need the ability to react quickly you can be there, but the Iraqis are conducting the lion’s share of their business,” Snow said.
[...] Asked if U.S. forces would be permanently stationed in Iraq, Snow said, “No, not necessarily.” He said that the prospect of permanent U.S. bases in Iraq were “not necessarily the case, either.”
Later, Snow said it was impossible to say if U.S. troops would remain in Iraq for some 50 years. “I don’t know,” he said. “It is an unanswerable question. But I’m not making that suggestion. … The war on terror is a long war.”
The first part of the strategy, if it is a strategy (I am only guessing it is) is explained above.
It’s difficult for me to figure out how we could do a Korea model if we do not have some troops based in Iraq, just as we have some troops based in S Korea. Perhaps we could base our troops in a nearby country or in the Kurdish area, which seems to be more friendly to us. I don’t know the answer.
The second thing I noticed in the same column came at the very end of it:
Adm. William Fallon, the top U.S. commander in the Middle East, seemed a surprising choice when he got the job earlier this year, yet his experience as U.S. commander in the Pacific overseeing the Korean peninsula would serve him well if the U.S. military adopts a Korea model in Iraq.
It didn’t make a lot of sense to regular military people that a Navy Admiral would be put in charge of a ground war.
Well, what about if that Navy Admiral had been the U.S. commander in the Pacific and had experience dealing with Korea?
In light of the statement by Tony Snow in the quoted article it begins to bring a little light on the subject.
Let’s now go to a third story that seems to tie in with what we are discussing.
It seems the Sunnis are getting fed up with the terror of Al Qaeda or, as they call themselves, the Islamic State of Iraq.
U.S. troops battled Al Qaeda in west Baghdad after Sunni Arab residents challenged the militants and called for American help to end furious gunfire that kept students from final exams and forced people in the neighborhood to huddle indoors.
Backed by helicopter gunships, U.S. troops on Thursday joined the two-day battle in the Amariyah district, according to a councilman and other residents of the Sunni district.
The fight reflects a trend that U.S. and Iraqi officials have been trumpeting recently to the west in Anbar province, once considered the heartland of the Sunni insurgency. Many Sunni tribes in the province have banded together to fight Al Qaeda, claiming the terrorist group is more dangerous than American forces.
This leads me to the other story that has been of interest to me.
The U.S. military is working more aggressively to forge cease-fires with Iraqi militants and quell the violence around Baghdad, judging that 80 percent of enemy combatants are “reconcilable,” a top U.S. commander said Thursday.
However, Lt. Gen. Raymond Odierno also warned that he may not be able to make a full assessment of the situation in Iraq by September, as demanded by lawmakers.
Odierno, the No. 2 U.S. commander in Iraq, told Pentagon reporters by video conference that he is pressing his military officers to reach out to the tribes, to some small insurgent groups and to religious and political leaders to push them to stop the violence.
“We are talking about cease-fires, and maybe signing some things that say they won’t conduct operations against the government of Iraq or against coalition forces,” Odierno said from Camp Victory in Baghdad. “We believe a large majority of groups within Iraq are reconcilable and are now interested in engaging with us. But more importantly, they want to engage and become a part of the government of Iraq.”
Stemming the violence in and around the capital city is key to giving the Iraqi government time to stabilize and move toward reconciliation with the warring sectarian factions. That would then allow the U.S. to begin withdrawing troops.
My non-military and non-presidential mind is beginning to see something that may or may not be there.
- We are getting reports the Sunnis, the same sect as Al Qaeda, are getting fed up with being terrorized by Al Qaeda and have asked U.S. troops to help them quell Al Qaeda.
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Our number 2 general in the theater is being persistent in seeing if we can get the various tribes, religious leaders etc. to agree to a cease-fire that would include not attacking U.S. or other coalition forces and supporting a stable Iraqi government.
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The overall commander of CENTCOM is an admiral who has experience in refereeing the Korean cease-fire. Remember, that war has not ended, and is only a cease-fire.
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We find a relatively safe base for our troops to be there in case they are needed, but otherwise stay out of the affairs of the country.
If you can follow my convoluted thinking I think you see the point I’m trying to make, or the links I’m trying to tie in to show what I think is a very distinct possibility of how we end up our combat in Iraq.
Written by ~J~



Sue Says:
June 1st, 2007 at 6:07 pmVisit Sue
J: Great job. No energy last night to put it all together.
Andrew Schlewitz Says:
June 1st, 2007 at 8:23 pmVisit Andrew Schlewitz
I hadn’t thought about S. Korea and Iraq being analogous (Philippines and Vietnam, sure). It’s an interesting comparison but, boy, some huge differences. For example, the occupation in S. Korea followed war with neighboring power and war was accompanied by fear of nuclear escalation; S. Korea doesn’t have the ethnic and religious divisions of Iraq.
President Bush ealier invoked comparisons with Truman and the early Cold War years–his administration is working hard to find some historical precedent to make this misadventure more promising.
As for resolving differences within Iraq–if it’s the US that hammers out the cease fire accords won’t that mean even less legitimacy for the Iraqui government, so we’re back to the same problem of an ineffective (irrelevant?) government?
~J~ Says:
June 1st, 2007 at 8:32 pmVisit ~J~
I’m giving you my theory. You ask an interesting question, but, at this point, does the American public really care if we broker the deal or if Iraq does?
If what I’ve been reading is leading to what I am theorizing, I would assume the Iraqi government would be involved in any final documents, if not for anything but show.