J's Cafe Nette

Maybe it’s the math teacher in me, but when I hear hype and hollering I want to know the facts.  Years of training of doing proofs and being taught not to advance to the next step without a sound logical reason, leave me always wanting to find the original source and reason behind the analysis or propaganda.  While politics and blogs feed on drama, the rumors and lies of smoke and mirrors should not cause panic or despair.

So, let’s get down to brass tacks with the health care votes. Jim Geraghty and Jay Cost have gotten down to some specifics of who is voting how.  In this post I’m going to look at what Jim Geraghty has written, and in Part II, I’ll summarize Jay Cost.

Jim Geraghty of The Campaign Spot has been doing an excellent job of keeping up with the yeas and nays of health care.  Earlier this week he wrote a column titled, Pelosi’s Suicide Squad, in which he surveyed the possibilities of nine Representatives who previously voted No on health care and who have been considered to be wavering.

Here are the six non-retiring members who previously followed their constituents by voting “no” but who now are apparently uninterested in continuing their service in Congress and are instead contemplating joining Pelosi’s Suicide Squad:

Rick Boucher of Virginia…
Suzanne Kosmas of Florida…
Frank Kratovil of Maryland…
Michael McMahon of New York…
Scott Murphy of New York…
Glenn Nye of Virginia…

He also mentioned the three retiring Democrats who might join Pelosi’s Suicide Squad:  Bart Gordon, John Tanner and Brian Baird. Of all nine, he placed only Baird in the near certain category.  In his blog he has continued to count noses and quote statements as he keeps tabs on the votes: here, here, here, here, here, here and here.  Yesterday he concluded:

There are quite a few Democrats who seem certain, or near-certain, to vote no without the Stupak language. Among then, Bart Stupak of Michigan, Dennis Cardoza of California, and Jim Oberstar of Minnesota.

Other Democrats have made comments that they’re not satisfied enough with the current legislation to vote for it, including Shelley Berkley of Nevada, Kurt Schrader of Oregon, Raúl Grijalva of Arizona, and Michael Arcuri of New York. Then again, they might just have brothers who would like to be federal judges.

Meanwhile, none of the nine Democrats who were mentioned as potential members of Pelosi’s Suicide Squad have indicated they’re willing to switch from “no” to “yes.” Three have indicated, either publicly, to other members, or to constituents, they’ll be voting “no” again: Frank Kratovil of Maryland, Michael McMahon of New York, and John Tanner of Tennessee.

In short, at this moment, if every wavering Democrat votes yes, and all of the pro-life Democrats vote yes, the bill passes. If any one of them flips, and none of the previous “no” votes flip, it’s game over, the bill can’t pass the House.

Yesterday the Susan B. Anthony List released their poll results of eight Democrats who voted for the Stupak Amendment last fall.  Geraghty looks at the numbers. Beside each name I’ve placed in brackets if the Representative voted Yes or No on health care last fall.

They asked, “Would you be more likely or less likely to vote to re-elect Congressman/Congresswoman [name] this year if (s)he votes for healthcare legislation that includes federal government funding of abortion?”

The percentage who said less likely, in each district:

[Yes] Steve Driehaus, Ohio’s 1st district: 55 percent.
[Yes] Charlie Wilson, Ohio’s 6th district: 64 percent.
[Yes] Marcy Kaptur, Ohio’s 9th district: 47 percent.
[No] John Boccieri, Ohio’s 16th district: 62 percent.
[Yes] Brad Ellsworth, Indiana’s 8th district: 65 percent.
[Yes] Baron Hill, Indiana’s 9th district: 61 percent.
[No] Jason Altmire, Pennsylvania’s 4th district: 58 percent.
[Yes] Paul Kanjorski, Pennsylvania’s 11th district: 53 percent.

“Makes no difference” scored between 10 and 13 percent in every district; “more likely” ranged from 14 percent in Boccieri’s district to 24 percent in Kanjorski’s district.

Last time, Driehaus, Wilson, Kaptur, Ellsworth, and Kanjorski voted yes; Boccieri and Altimire voted no. Of course, last time the bill included the Stupak language, which restricted private insurers participating in the exchange from offering abortion coverage as part of their policies. There is little to no chance the legislation will include these limits this time around.

Of the five who voted Yes on the bill in the fall, three might be in serious trouble in the 2010 election if they don’t vote No now because of the abortion language in the Senate bill. Kaptor might survive a Yes, but from these numbers Kanjorski would have a harder time squeaking out a win.  I am unfamiliar with other demographics of the districts that also might come into play.

Today Geraghty writes that the closest he’s seen to a flip from no to yes has been in a statement by retiring Congressman Bart Gordon.  He also notes that  Eric Massa, who voted No last fall, will retire on Monday.

In my next post, I’ll summarize Jay Cost’s vote count on health care.

__________
H/T: Wikipedia, NRO, The Campaign Spot, Susan B. Anthony List.

Tweet This Post

One Response to “The Health Care Vote:
Smoke, Mirrors and Brass Tacks”