Vote. Folks. Vote.

Tipp shows this as a very close race and the numbers in some key states are leaning McCain. Every vote will count on Tuesday if we are to defeat Barack Obama.

2 points separate the candidates as of today:

The race tightened again Sunday as independents who’d been leaning to Obama shifted to McCain to leave that key group a toss-up. McCain also pulled even in the Midwest, moved back into the lead with men, padded his gains among Protestants and Catholics, and is favored for the first time by high school graduates.

McCain supporters should definitely look upon this as a positive:

“Most Accurate Pollster Of The Campaign Season”

An analysis of Final Certified Results for the 2004 election showed TIPP was the most accurate pollster of the campaign season, coming within three-tenths of a percentage point of Bush’s actual margin of victory. Learn more at www.TIPPonline.com.

Don’t let all the other skewed polls and tv nonsense convince you this is over. We can help McCain/Palin to victory if we just get out there and vote!

HT: AJ Strata (While you are there visit his home page for more interesting information of both state and national polling information.)

One segment of our population has decided, overwhelmingly I might add, that John McCain would be their choice for Commander in Chief:

Surprise — at least one poll shows a huge McCain lead: “[Senator John] McCain, R-Ariz., handily defeated Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., 68 percent to 23 percent in a voluntary survey of 4,293 active-duty, National Guard, and reserve subscribers and former subscribers to Army Times, Navy Times, Marine Corps Times, and Air Force Times.” Or perhaps not so surprising: there’s a history involved here.

If these numbers hold true upon completion of the election then it would show that those commissioned to serve at the pleasure of the president understand the profound differences between these two candidates.

John McCain has proven his duty to country. He has shown through his own actions that he is willing to fight and die for America. Barack Obama on the other hand, not so much. This man has to swallow hard to not spew the party line even when it comes to giving credit to our uniformed services for their achievements in Iraq.

His use of our military for mere political gain was an early indicator of his disqualification (in my opinion) for the job of Commander in Chief.

Make no mistake, we will all pay a price in an Obama administration..he has made that clear himself, but the military will not only face the same “changes” to our country as all citizens but will serve at the pleasure of a President who has shown no tendencies toward respect of those who protect this nation.

We can voice our discontent, they cannot. Most of us individually will not be used as political tools, they will. Our pride will not be challenged by those in power not allowing us to complete a job with which we have been charged, theirs will. Those of us in civilian life will not experience the pain of feeling a friend or fellow “worker” lost their lives in vain. Under an Obama administration it is more than possible they will.

Check out the balance of Greyhawk’s post. It is well worth the read.

Listening to the news the past couple of days for the first time since we got the new puppy, I am hearing the polls are tightening up. Gallup showed a 2 point Obama lead among likely voters last night, a 4 point surge by McCain overnight. I am reminded of the famous 1948 Chicago Tribune headline held up by Harry S Truman, stating Dewey had defeated Truman. We all remember President Dewey, don’t we?

Now it seems the Obama campaign has released an urgent memo with a fill in the blanks form for a call to GOTV.

” Friends - Please take the time to read this.

After two years of working with Barack, I’ve been down in Miami now for about four weeks helping put together our final push for getting out the vote. Early voting started 8 days ago and we feel like we have a slight early advantage — but we are urgent. Polls for the last couple of weeks have given us a small lead of 4-5 points. If we are successful in getting out the massive numbers of voters that live here in Florida, Barack will win this state and make history.

We have last minute needs and I need your help. Here are our urgent needs:

1. People who are willing to come to Florida to do key GOTV activities of knocking on doors and making phone calls — this is our single biggest need. We don’t need anyone who wants to come down and hang out — we need workers. There are 600,000 African Americans who were registered to vote in 2004 who did not vote; 900,000 registered voters under the age of 35 who did not vote in 2004 and around 400,000 Hispanics who were registered but didn’t vote in 2004. These are key groups for us and with poor voting history, a special effort needs to be made. There are also 900,000 newly registered voters in the state — a large number are Democrats and Independents who we also need to pay special attention to. We will take anyone who is willing to talk to voters — and in Florida, with such a diverse population, we could use as many diverse people as possible. Spanish-speaking and those who speak Creole are in high demand.

2. We also need help with our Faith Outreach Program — people who will be here before Sunday morning to attend services, possibly speak on behalf of Barack Obama and help with GOTV churches and African American voters in general. We also need help with Hispanic churches, progressive denominations like Episcopal, United Church of Christ, etc.

3. We need experienced people who can help with inner-city GOTV efforts - mostly African American and Hispanic.

4. We need a few people who can help with GOTV logistics — creating walk packets, managing phone banks, running transportation systems, etc.

5. Attorney who can help with voter protection.

6. I’m sure there are other things we need that I’m not thinking about right now — but the bottom line is we need help.

There is a lot at stake here — 27 electoral votes, but also the future of building Florida into a majority Democratic state in the years to come. After an aggressive voter registration program here, Democrats now have a registration advantage of around 650,000 voters. In 2010, there will be critical races to oust Governor Christ and Senator Martinez. In 2012, after a new census, redistricting will take place and Democrats need to have a serious role in drawing the map. Florida is likely to pick up 3-4 new congressional seats, which means 3-4 additional electoral votes, making it even more important to keeping a U.S. House majority and an increased role in presidential races to come.

Winning Florida could be what gets Barack over the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency. But it will also be a major moral boost and provide momentum for Florida Democrats to build and succeed in the future.”

I’ve noticed Sen. Obama looks a bit haggard this week, almost as though he were worried about something. It could very well be his sick grandmother and I’m sure that has a lot to do with his worries, but it wouldn’t explain why he spent two days in Pennsylvania this week, Biden spending one with him and another by himself and Bill Clinton hustling votes for him in Pennsylvania Thursday.

Why all this attention to Pennsylvania by Barack Obama in the final week of the campaign if internal polls are not showing a disturbing trend? After all, Pennsylvania was supposed to be a reliably blue state.

Here is the opening line of the above-linked story:

In a phone interview with FOX News, Barack Obama’s deputy campaign manager, Steve Hildebrand said: “John McCain is right. Things are tightening in the battleground states.”

Hildebrand then goes on to admit similar memos were sent to North Carolina, Georgia and Ohio, but says things are not so “acute” in Pennsylvania.

Hmmm. We shall see what we shall see next Tuesday, but knowing how many stops he and surrogates have made in “safe” Pennsylvania when the plan was to campaign in “safe” Red States makes me think Hildebrand doth protest too much.

Obama has a well-oiled campaign machine, tons of money, and most of the press on his side. McCain has run a lousy campaign, has stuck to $84 million in public campaign financing, has been hit upside the head with almost everything the Obama press has to use, Sarah Palin has been personally attacked as well as her family, and yet Obama is still campaigning in Pennsylvania. He can’t quite close the sale and with new information about PLO links he has to be hoping the LA Times will stick to its guns and not release the tape that will probably be more damaging than the written transcript. Otherwise, why not ask for its release if it would help him?

We have heard the Obama campaign plans a victory party that includes caviar. (How “middle-class”. I eat it once a week. NOT!) They can still have the caviar, but will it be a victory party or a pity party?

Again, we shall see what we shall see next Tuesday.

About that tax plan offered by Senator Obama:

bama’s been lowering the bar on his tax plan. Where he once claimed that only Americans making over $250,000 would see tax increases, he’s now down as far as $200,000 and maybe even $150,000 if his running mate Senator Foot-In-His-Mouth is to be believed.

But one aspect of Obama’s tax plans have been ignored. See, Obama and his comrades are also promising to let the Bush tax cuts expire. If that happens, we’d see massive tax increases for Americans making as little as $50,000/year.

Pretty soon the only people receiving any tax break at all will be those who pay none to begin with!

Hope for McCain supporters (even if it’s just a little bit) from DJ Drummond:

I have been saying all along, that McCain was closer to Obama in the election campaign than the polls were indicating. However, I have been doing so by focusing on party affiliation, the demographic most fiddled with by the polls. Those critiquing my analysis have sometimes pointed to internal demographics which show problems for McCain. With just a week until the end of the season, let’s see where the thresholds for election are, with regard to demographics. That is, what is the minimum performance in each area which was enough to get the win?…..

Over at Musing Minds I found the one line post of the week to date.

Check it out..it has something to do with that wealth distribution we’ve heard about lately. It seems the concept really does run in the democratic family.

Who knew that the Speaker of the House is such a comedienne? Made me laugh!

Live From the Ministry of Truth. A new video from Ed Driscoll..good stuff!

We keep reaching new lows with our Congress, with Rasmussen Reportsfinding just a 9% approval rating for our current Congress.

The percentage of voters who give Congress good or excellent ratings has fallen to single digits for the first time in Rasmussen Reports tracking history. This month, just 9% say Congress is doing a good or excellent job. Most voters (52%) say Congress is doing a poor job, which ties the record high in that dubious category.

Last month, 11% of voters gave the legislature good or excellent ratings. Congress has not received higher than a 15% approval rating since the beginning of 2008.

So, we seem not to be happy with Congress as a whole, but as a whole we will all vote to put our rascal back in and hope they kick out the other rascals. Go figure.

The purpose of this survey is to examine how people think and feel about the political issues, parties, and candidates in the upcoming election. In the survey, you will be asked a series of questions about two political candidates, John McCain and Hillary Clinton. We are very interested in how individuals that find information on the web think about politics, and your participation would be greatly appreciated. In total, the survey should take about 15 minutes to complete. The survey is completely anonymous and you can skip any questions you do not wish to answer.

Click here to take the survey:http://www.ic.sunysb.edu/stu/crweber/TAKESURVEY/election_2008.htm

Please feel free to contact Chris Weber (crweber@notes.cc.sunysb.edu) at Stony Brook University with any questions or concerns. Thanks for your help!

At Chris’ request, comments for this post are closed.

You know how we feel about polls here. They’re just a snapshot of a period in time. Even though Rasmussen has a great record his poll is also just a snapshot in time.

In polls taken recently these are his conclusions:

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that, if the Congressional Election were held today, 43% of American voters say they would vote for the Democrat in their district and 38% would opt for the Republican. That’s the closest Republicans have been on this measure since losing control of Congress in Election 2006. It’s also the first time in six months that the Democrat’s advantage has been in single digits. A month ago, the Democrats enjoyed a ten-point edge over the GOP….

…It remains to be seen whether this survey reflects lasting change or is merely a statistical aberration. However, it is worth noting that Republicans have also recently reduced the gap in partisan identification. This may be partly due to increased confidence in the War on Terror and the situation in Iraq.

Among unaffiliated voters, Democrats attract 32%, Republicans 26%. A month ago, Democrats enjoyed a 41% to 21% margin among voters not affiliated with either major political party.

Just 13% of Americans currently give Congress good or excellent marks for their legislative efforts. That’s just a single point above the lowest rating of 2007 (see monthly results since Election 2006).

Congress accomplished almost nothing of significance during the last session, and expecting them to accomplish much during an election year is expecting too much from a good Congress, much less one with the record of the Pelosi/Reid Congress.

We still have 10 months before the elections and anything could happen to move this one way or the other.

On the other hand, this could be the perfect example of getting rid of the other rascals but keeping our rascals in office.

The war took up so much fruitless time in the last Congress that people actually lost faith in their government.

We don’t hear too many candidates running against the war anymore since the surge has taken hold and has been successful thus far.

General Odeniero expects all 18 provinces in Iraq to be self-sufficient as far as police and military being able to take over by the end of this year. That’s quite an accomplishment if it happens.

Let’s see if these polls translate to Republican gains in November.

Gallup has set up a new website with videos talking about their polls.

Here’s one that talks about both sides of the presidential primaries.

Click the little icon on the left to start the player.

In a Zogby poll taken Oct. 11-15 of 9718 likely voters, 50% said they would never vote for Hillary Clinton, compared to 46% in the last poll in March.

You know how we feel about polls around here, but I find this to be a snapshot of how voters feel now, and it presents a big hill for Hillary to climb. Her negatives will only get higher as this campaign goes forward into the general election, despite her efforts to come off as a motherly figure.

Here’s how the other candidates fared:

Whom would you NEVER vote for for President of the U.S.?

%

Clinton (D)

50%

Kucinich (D)

49%

Gravel (D)

47%

Paul (D)

47%

Brownback (R)

47%

Tancredo (R)

46%

McCain (R)

45%

Hunter (R)

44%

Giuliani (R)

43%

Romney (R)

42%

Edwards (D)

42%

Thompson (R)

41%

Dodd (D)

41%

Biden (D)

40%

Obama (D)

37%

Huckabee (R)

35%

Richardson (D)

34%

Not sure

4%

From Frank Newport of Gallup at USA Today comes the news the president’s approval ratings have bottomed out and are now on the uptick. It’s still nothing to write home about but the journey of a thousand miles begins with one step.

We’re seeing some slight hints of positive news for the Bush administration. For one thing, Bush’s job approval rating has stopped its downward trajectory. Bush hit bottom with his administration low point of 29% in early July (based on our USA Today/Gallup poll readings). Now – in the data just about to be released from our weekend poll – Bush’s approval rating has recovered slightly to 34%. That’s not a big jump, but it is the second consecutive poll in which the president’s numbers have been higher rather than lower.

Also, we are seeing a slight uptick in the percentage of Americans who say the “surge” in Iraq is working. That may not be a total surprise given the general tone of news out of Iraq recently, including the positive light on the situation put forth by Michael E. O’Hanlon and Kenneth M. Pollack in their widely-discussed New York Times op-ed piece “A War We Just Might Win” on July 30. But it represents a change.

Indeed, the most recent New York Times/CBS News poll itself found a slight increase in the percent of Americans saying that the U.S. did the right thing in taking military action in Iraq, and were so uncertain about it that they redid the survey. And found the same results. (See this discussion by the Times’ Janet Elder).

While everyone is talking about President Bush’s low poll numbers, we haven’t really heard a lot about the approval rating of Congress.

According to this article the president is at 34% ranking him as good or excellent. This is an upward movement of about 4 points.

In contrast, Congress’ approval rating has slipped to 14%. No, that’s not a typo. The congressional approval rating is fourteen percent, the lowest approval of Congress ever recorded at least by the pollster John Zogby, who conducted this poll.

In contrast, last October, in the final days of the last Congress, Congressional approval stood at 23%. We all know what happened to that congress.

We don’t put much stock in polls around here, but I thought it was interesting since some people do care about polls.

I don’t need a poll to tell me how to feel about the president or Congress, and Congress is so much fun to pick apart.

Can anyone name three major achievements of the current Congress seven months after it took over? There’s enough blame to go around on both sides of the aisle, but what we are seeing today is not a fight for the soul of America, but a fight for political parties and re-election. It’s time to send in the adults.

Report: 70% of all praise is sarcastic

I have no idea what the reactions of Americans would be, but I thought it would be interesting to pose the question.

We are reading reports that Al Qaeda is building strength to 2001 levels and Chertoff has a gut feeling something might happen here during the summer since summer seems to be the preferred time for Al Qaeda to strike.

My question is: How do you think the American public would react if Al Qaeda were successful in another attack in our country?

Do you think they would rally around the flag the way they did on 9/11/2001?

Do you think they will blame the president for not keeping us safe, even though we have not had an attack on our soil or our facilities since 9/11/2001?

Do you think they will blame Congress for sending mixed signals over the current war?

Or do you think they just won’t care?

How do you think this will affect the presidential race, if at all?

I’d be interested in reading your thoughts and feel free to add whatever you think I didn’t include.

As for your gift, well these 1,100 citizens were polled and they would like to see you and the Vice President impeached.

Nearly half of the US public wants President George W. Bush to face impeachment, and even more favor that fate for Vice President Dick Cheney, according to a poll out Friday.
The survey by the American Research Group found that 45 percent support the US House of Representatives beginning impeachment proceedings against Bush, with 46 percent opposed, and a 54-40 split in favor when it comes to Cheney.

The study by the private New Hampshire-based ARG canvassed 1,100 Americans by telephone July 3-5 and had an error margin of plus or minus three percentage points. The findings are available on ARG’s Internet site

Here are the poll results. (You have to scroll down a bit)

These were primarily registered voters vs. likely voters..interesting.

Oh well, feeling as I do about polls, this falls in to the same category for me as the others..not very reliable. More importantly, it has been a pleasure to have a President who does not test to see which way the wind is blowing to decide how to govern.

While it is always nice to be the popular person in the room, it is much harder to be the one who has to often make unpopular decisions. I for one admire the majority of those decisions and admire the man who made them.

Happy 61st and may you enjoy many more.

I do not put much weight in polls period, but I found this one particularly interesting in reading the topics considered more pressing than Global Warming. Perhaps we should put a few of these topics on polls we run here in the states.

‘Scepticism’ over climate claims

The Ipsos Mori poll of 2,032 adults - interviewed between 14 and 20 June - found 56% believed scientists were still questioning climate change.

There was a feeling the problem was exaggerated to make money, it found.

The Royal Society said most climate scientists believed humans were having an “unprecedented” effect on climate.

The survey suggested that terrorism, graffiti, crime and dog mess were all of more concern than climate change.

I’ve seen polls which address many different topics but “dog mess,” that is a new one by me.

Whether it is 2.000 or 1.500, or 20,00 people polled on a topic, I have always felt polls can be skewed to favor the result the pollster is searching for and have rarely believed they present the true climate of our citizens.

According to Gallup’s Frank Newport in this USA Today blog piece public confidence in the Congress is at an all-time low of just 14%.

Just 14% of Americans have a great deal or quite a lot of confidence in Congress.

This 14% Congressional confidence rating is the all-time low for this measure, which Gallup initiated in 1973. The previous low point for Congress was 18% at several points in the period of time 1991 to 1994.

Congress is now nestled at the bottom of the list of Gallup’s annual Confidence in Institutions rankings, along with HMOs. Just 15% of Americans have a great deal or quite a lot of confidence in HMOs. (By way of contrast, 69% of Americans have a great deal or quite a lot of confidence in the military, which tops the list. More on this at galluppoll.com on Thursday).

It’s worth remembering that Congress is basically nothing more than a mechanism for the representation of the people’s wishes. We all can’t go to Washington. So we elect men and women and send them off in our stead. It’s not an optimal situation, it seems to me, when such a low percentage of average Americans have confidence in this system.

Generally speaking, Americans have been skeptical about Congress for decades now. But the current 14% confidence rating for Congress is down from 19% last year and is the lowest in Gallup’s history, surpassing the 18% confidence in Congress measured in 1991, 1993 and 1994.

So much for the much-heralded mandate. Then again, we haven’t heard that word bandied about so much lately, have we? Maybe Congress had its own set of polls showing the same thing.

Maybe if they got to work on bills that could actually pass and be signed their approval rating would rise, but they seem hell-bent on spinning their wheels in the mud and dirtying anyone who gets in the way.

If you woulds like to participate in an interesting survey about blogs and politics, head on over to Betsy’s Page.

The questions in this survey are precise making it easy to reply and the entire questionnaire takes less than ten minutes to complete.

If you wish to take the survey from here this is the link.

I have always been skeptical of polls but this particular one caught my eye primarily because I was hoping for more from our newly elected Congressional members.

Congress Approval Down to 29%; Bush Approval Steady at 33%

PRINCETON, NJ — A new Gallup Poll finds continued low levels of public support for both Congress and President George W. Bush. Twenty-nine percent of Americans approve of Congress, down slightly from last month’s reading (33%) and this year’s high point of 37%, while Bush’s approval rating is holding steady at 33%. Both the ratings of Congress and the president are slightly lower than their respective 2007 averages. Approval ratings of Congress are higher among Democrats than Republicans, while Bush’s ratings are much higher among Republicans.

We were bombarded prior to and during the 2006 mid-terms with information on how this would be the most ethical congress and one which would produce meaningful legislation immediately upon taking office. I must say after the failure of the Republicans to maintain even one of the Houses, I was willing to give the Democrats a fair chance.

What these numbers tell me is that the endless hearings, finger pointing and posturing will serve neither party or the American people very well.

The President will be leaving office in less than two years, however, many Congressional leaders will hold their seats for the remainder of their life. Perhaps we have become complacent as a people and choose to accept mediocrity or maybe partisanship is so thick that it will take a disaster of major proportions in this country to wake Washington up.

These Congressional numbers would rise tomorrow if the troops were funded (and not with a bill laced with conditions and pork), immigration was taken seriously and problematic domestic issues were addressed.

I do not care who gets “credit” for good legislation just please get something accomplished. I don’t want to hear adults whine about the other side, I want to see them do what we teach our children..be honest and “play fair.” It’s not about the pat on the back.. it is about the hard work you do to prove you have earned it.

According to the latest AP-Ipsos poll things don’t look any brighter for Congress than for the President.

WASHINGTON (AP) - People think the Democratic-led Congress is doing just as dreary a job as President Bush, following four months of bitter political standoffs that have seen little progress on Iraq and a host of domestic issues.

An AP-Ipsos poll also found that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is a more popular figure than the president and her colleagues on Capitol Hill, though she faces a gender gap in which significantly more women than men support her.

The survey found only 35 percent approve of how Congress is handling its job, down 5 percentage points in a month. That gives lawmakers the same bleak approval rating as Bush, who has been mired at about that level since last fall, including his dip to a record low for the AP-Ipsos poll of 32 percent last January.

“It’s mostly Iraq” plus a lack of progress in other areas, said Rep. Tom Cole, R-Okla., who heads the House GOP’s campaign committee. “These are not good numbers for an incumbent, and it doesn’t matter if you have an R or a D next to your name.”

[...]

“People are unhappy, there hasn’t been a lot of change in direction, for example in Iraq,” said Rep. Chris Van Hollen, D-Md., chairman of House Democrats’ campaign effort.

Maybe if we throw them all out and get a new batch in there something can get done as far as running our government. People are tired of the bickering and gridlock and want to see some bang for their tax buck.

I guess I always knew in the back of my mind it would happen. Right-leaning sites love to call those on the left the cut and run crowd.

Now the right has its own cut and run people. Oh, they describe themselves as moderates, but no one will pay attention to that. All they see and will see is a group of Republicans met with the president on Tuesday and told him they can’t support him much longer because the polls don’t look good. And, by golly, getting re-elected is priority number one in Washington.

House Republican moderates, in a remarkably blunt White House meeting, warned President Bush this week that his pursuit of the war in Iraq is risking the future of the Republican Party and that he cannot count on GOP support for many more months.

…
But the meeting between 11 House Republicans, Bush, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates, White House political adviser Karl Rove and presidential press secretary Tony Snow was perhaps the clearest sign yet that patience in the party is running out.
…
“It was a very remarkable, candid conversation,” Davis said. “People are always saying President Bush is in a bubble. Well, this was our chance, and we took it.”

Even with pressure mounting, Congress and the White House are making little progress as they try to find a bipartisan option to fund the war through the summer. Senate leaders met with White House officials yesterday and produced no agreement, as Gates warned lawmakers that the debate is beginning to delay Pentagon operations.

The one area of agreement seemed to be that U.S. officials want the Iraqi government to better contain violence there. Vice President Cheney made an unannounced trip to Baghdad yesterday to meet with Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and other officials. He urged them to help end fighting between rival Sunni and Shiite factions, to make progress on revising their constitution, and to better manage their oil revenue.

Cheney also expressed concern about the Iraqi parliament considering a two-month summer vacation.

Mr. President, I’m no bigwig or even a littlewig in politics, but I have some advice to you: Stay true to yourself as long as you can and force Congress to defund the war so when the crying and bellyaching start you can say with a clear conscience you tried to complete the job, but the Congress tied your hands.

It will make the anti-war crowd orgasmic and I’m beginning to think those in your own party will feel the same way. (more…)

According to this report evangelical Christians are dissatisfied with the current crop of Republican presidential candidates.

Evangelical Christians have long been a key constituency for the Republican Party, but leading religious conservatives are expressing dissatisfaction with the party’s current crop of presidential candidates.

“What’s different is that evangelicals had desirable candidates in 2000,” said Marvin Olasky, who helped define the “compassionate conservative” message that was central to President Bush’s 2000 campaign. “Now, many evangelicals are negative about the whole leader board.”

Eight years ago, Christian conservative stalwarts Gary Bauer and Alan Keyes sought the Republican nomination in a presidential field led from start to finish by Mr. Bush, who proudly proclaimed his born-again faith.

Each of the three Republicans most often mentioned as front-runners for the 2008 presidential nomination — Sen. John McCain of Arizona, former New York Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney — present significant problems to evangelical voters, said Mr. Olasky, a University of Texas professor and Christian journalist.

“The question is what will be less distasteful to many evangelicals: Mitt Romney’s one-wife Mormonism, Rudy Giuliani’s marital mayh